наткнулся в свежей статье колумниста Арстехники Эрика Бергера на любопытный январский документ -
http://www.airuniversity.af.mil/Portals/10/Research/documents/Space/Fast Space_Public_2017.pdf
это исследование на тему того, как вояки (USAF в частности) могут и должны воспользоваться стремительным развитием частной космической индустрии
немного цитат с выжимками оттуда:
(ULCATS = ultra low-cost access to space; RLV = reusable launch vehicles)
1) Industry Views
SUMMARY: US commercial industry generally agrees, but not without exception, that the path to ULCATS is development of two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) RLV. Multiple credible US firms are planning and investing in the development of TSTO RLVs, using existing and near-term technologies. While there are at least a half-dozen serious US companies investing significant private risk capital in RLVs, the survey team did not identify any US companies investing significant private capital in an expendable launch capability that had the potential of achieving ULCATS.
2) Technical Feasibility Assessment
SUMMARY: Multiple US companies, from traditional aerospace firms to billionairefunded companies, are pursuing a broad range of technical strategies to achieve ULCATS. All systems to date are only partially reusable. However, several credible companies have plans to achieve full reusability. Our technical team has concluded their RLV development plans are technically feasible.
3) Lowering Launch Costs
SUMMARY: Lowering launch costs by 10X to achieve ULCATS requires jump-starting a virtuous cycle (see Figure 2) of industry competition with commercial RLVs that open up new markets. Initially, costs can be reduced by 3X. As new markets and applications develop based on the availability of 3X lower launch costs, this will increase flight rates, and the availability and reliability of launch services. This will increase investor confidence, driving investments in the next generation of RLVs, with increased reliability, robustness, and operability, lowering costs and increasing flight rates even further. This cycle could achieve a 10X reduction in launch costs. See Figure 1 in Executive Summary.
4) Financial
SUMMARY: Philanthrocapitalists and strategic investors are the most likely partners to co-invest with the USG in ULCATS systems. Philanthrocapitalists are significantly motivated by trying to make a difference for humanity and are willing to accept a higher degree of risk than traditional investors. Strategic investors, primarily major aerospace companies, view launch as strategically critical to future business and are also willing to accept a higher degree of risk.
5) Partnership Strategy
SUMMARY: The USG’s traditional acquisition methods are unlikely to achieve ULCATS. Non-traditional partnerships using OTAs have a much higher chance of success. The USAF has the existing authorities it needs for non-traditional partnerships to jump start the virtuous cycle with commercial firms.
6) National Security Strategy & Policy
SUMMARY: Current international space law and existing space treaties are flexible enough to allow military usage of Outer Space. Further, it is in the long-term national security interests of the United States to lead in space development. This would allow the United States to establish key precedents in international common law, such as Western principles of free trade and commerce on the space frontier.
7) National Leadership, Economic, and Soft Power Benefits
SUMMARY: The benefits of ULCATS go well beyond utility to the warfighter, and achieving ULCATS will require leadership and action at the national level. ULCATS cuts across all space agendas, all space agencies, and all space programs.